*This project has now been closed following a DfT decision to phase out the TEM in its current form.*
Background and Challenge
At the request of the DfT, Zemo Partnership will conduct a desktop review of the Transport Energy Model (TEM) and the assumptions upon which it is based.
Objectives
The review seeks to determine:
- If the assumptions made in 2018 during the development of the model remain relevant today.
- If the data sources used in 2018 have been subsequently updated and superseded in 2021.
- If any additional model outputs should be included such as powered light vehicles (PLV).
- If any additional alternative fuels should be included.
A key assumption is that the review will stay within the boundaries already in place for the existing TEM in terms of emission data i.e. forecasting of emission levels beyond 2021 will not be included unless already present in the TEM. Specific examples being:
- The 2018 GHG figures and air pollution data present in the model will be reviewed against the equivalent data sets for 2021.
- Well-to-tank and well-to-wheel GHG forward projections to 2050 for various technologies and fuels will not form part of the review.
- Forward projections to 2050 for battery production related emissions that currently exist in the TEM will be reviewed against the latest information available.
Actions and Outputs
- A workshop event with engagement with relevant member organisations to review the TEM.
- A summary report for the DfT with observations and recommendations from the TEM review.
Timeline
September 2021 – November 2021