US report says EV prices to stay high due to high cost of Lithium-ion batteries
Wed 16 December 2009
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The US National Research Council says that the costs of plug-in hybrid electric cars are likely to remain high in the near future because of the high cost of the lithium-ion batteries used to power them. The new report says that the costs to manufacture plug-in hybrid electric vehicles in 2010 are estimated to be as much as $18,000 more than for an equivalent conventional vehicle.
The NRC report says that although a mile driven on electricity is cheaper than one driven on gasoline, it will probably take several decades before the upfront costs decline enough to be offset by lifetime fuel savings. It says that subsidies in the tens to hundreds of billions of dollars over that period will be needed if plug-ins are to achieve rapid penetration of the U.S. automotive market. Even with these efforts, plug-in hybrid electric vehicles are not expected to significantly impact on oil consumption or carbon emissions before 2030.
The report focuses on plug-in hybrid electric vehicles that can operate on electricity for 10 or 40 miles such as the Toyota Prius and the Chevrolet Volt. It says that the lithium-ion battery technology used to run these vehicles is the key determinant of their cost and range on electric power.
While battery technology has been developing rapidly, steep declines in cost do not appear likely over the next twenty years or so because li-ion batteries are already produced in large quantities for mobile phones and laptop computers.
Some manufacturers - such as Nissan who plan to begin selling their electric Leaf in 2011 - plan, however, to lease their vehicles' batteries. The result, according to Nissan, is that the purchase cost will be similar to a similar conventional car and the running costs will be lower.
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