UK's transport decarbonisation targets reduced by over 70% in revised strategy says report
Wed 24 May 2023
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A new report from the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS) says that the Carbon Budget Delivery Plan (CBDP), published in March 2023, represented a revision of the whole of the Government's Net Zero Strategy and reduced the potential ambition for carbon reduction set out in the 2021 Transport Decarbonisation Plan by over 70%.
The analysis - led by Professor Greg Marsden of the Institute for Transport Studies (ITS) at Leeds University (and a Zemo Partnership Board member) - says that as policies to lock down the transition to electric vehicles have been advanced, demand management has largely been abandoned. According to the report author: "This is not gear change, this is reverse gear".
The executive summary to the report comments that the 2021 publication of the Transport Decarbonisation Plan and other key strategies such as Bus Back Better, the Williams-Shapps Review and Gear Change painted an optimistic picture for a more sustainable, equitable and balanced decarbonisation of the transport sector.
Transport is now the largest carbon-emitting sector of the UK economy. The CREDS report says that the direction set out in the CBDP to go slower is "a continuation of the exceptionalism mindset on transport emission reduction".
"It may be argued that other parts of the economy can go faster and take up the slack. It is the job of the Climate Change Committee (CCC) to assess those arguments from a carbon perspective across the whole economy.
"It would, though, be surprising if the paring back of ambition was deemed acceptable given the short time that has passed and the seeming lack of commitment to demand management relative to the CCC’s view of what was possible. Whatever assessment the CCC reaches, from a transport system perspective, the current strategy makes little sense.
"Pursuing a technology-led strategy, with no adjustment to prices will increase congestion and widen transport inequalities, missing the opportunity to deliver a fairer transition which drives up well-being and productivity."
This report shows that pathways which achieve the Government’s aims on electrification could still be consistent with the CCC’s Balanced Pathway if a 20% reduction in road traffic levels were also to be achieved by 2030 relative to current plans.
The policy goal in Scotland is for an absolute reduction in car kilometres of 20% by 2030, although progress against the goal is yet to be substantially realised.
The report authors comment: "Such an outcome cannot be wished for; it needs to be made to come about".
In 2021, CREDS published a series of scenarios, referred to as Positive Low Energy Futures (PLEF). The PLEF transport report set out alternative pathways which could save energy and carbon but still allow society to flourish.
"Pathways with reductions in car mileage will require a step change in funding and delivery of alternatives to car travel which are not currently being planned for. However, every year that passes with a business as usual transport delivery mindset, reduces the potential to shift to such pathways".
The work, by Professor Greg Marsden at Leeds University ITS Decarbon8 project with the Centre for Research into Energy Demand Solutions (CREDS) is titled, 'Reverse gear: The reality and implications of national transport emission reduction policies'.
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