Sat 06 November 2021 View all news

All the climate pledges announced to date, if met in full and on time, would be enough to hold the rise in global temperatures to 1.8 °C by 2100 according to an article by the Executive Director of the IEA, Fatih Birol. 

The calculation was a central question addressed in the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook 2021 (WEO-2021), which the Agency is continuing to update.

When WEO-2021 was published in mid-October, pledges from 120 countries representing 70% of global CO2 emissions were in place. The IEA calculated that it these were implemented in full and on time, the world would be headed for 2.1 °C of warming by the end of the century - a level well beyond that considered 'safe' by partners in the Paris Agreement. 

Since mid-October and the beginning of COP26, additional pledges to reduce CO2 emissions - in particular that by India - plus the agreement to also strengthen controls on methane emissions, means that the world is headed for 1.8°C of warming if the extra commitments are met in full and on time. 

The IEA describes this as a 'landmark moment' as it would be the first time that governments have come forward with targets of sufficient ambition to hold global warming to below 2 °C. 

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