All the climate pledges announced to date, if met in full and on time, would be enough to hold the rise in global temperatures to 1.8 °C by 2100 according to an article by the Executive Director of the IEA, Fatih Birol.
The calculation was a central question addressed in the IEA’s recent World Energy Outlook 2021 (WEO-2021), which the Agency is continuing to update.
When WEO-2021 was published in mid-October, pledges from 120 countries representing 70% of global CO2 emissions were in place. The IEA calculated that it these were implemented in full and on time, the world would be headed for 2.1 °C of warming by the end of the century - a level well beyond that considered 'safe' by partners in the Paris Agreement.
Since mid-October and the beginning of COP26, additional pledges to reduce CO2 emissions - in particular that by India - plus the agreement to also strengthen controls on methane emissions, means that the world is headed for 1.8°C of warming if the extra commitments are met in full and on time.
The IEA describes this as a 'landmark moment' as it would be the first time that governments have come forward with targets of sufficient ambition to hold global warming to below 2 °C.
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