Electric cars to exceed 40% of world car sales by 2030 under current policies - IEA
Thu 15 May 2025
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A new report from the International Energy Agency (IEA) projects that under current policy settings, electric cars will comprise 40% of sales of all cars globally by 2030. The report says that the value proposition for electric trucks is also improving, achieving a lower total cost of ownership for some heavy duty applications in the Chinese market.
The IEA's 'Global EV Outlook 2025' says that worldwide electric car sales last year exceeded 17 million; a sales share of more than 20%. Over half of all electric cars sold in the world in 2024 were made in China. Sales in Europe stagnated, however, as subsidy schemes and supportive policies were withdrawn. Electric car sales grew in the US last year, reaching more than 1 in 10 cars sold. There was also significant growth in electric car sales in Asia (apart from China) and Latin America, with sales increasing over 60% last year, on the back of policy support and cheaper electric car imports from China.
Across all emerging economies Chinese imports made up 75% of the increase in electric car sales in 2024.
The IEA report says that China is likely to lead in electric car sales to 2030, potentially achieving a sales share of around 80% on the back of significant market momentum and competitively-priced EVs. Markets in Europe and the UK are expected to achieve a sales share of close to 60% by 2030, driven by CO2 targets and mandates. Sales in the US are expected to grow more slowly based on the policy directions set by the new administration.
With battery prices continuing to fall significantly, the average battery electric car price in most western markets remained higher (20% in Germany; 30% in US) than conventional counterparts. In contrast, two-thirds of all electric cars sold in China in 2024 were priced lower than their conventional equivalents, before including purchase incentives for EVs. This helped boost sales even as government incentives decreased.
'Global EV Outlook 2025' sees two/three-wheelers – an important mode of road transport in southeast Asia – electrifying faster: by 2030, almost 1 in 3 such vehicles sold are projected to be electric.
The report also comments on the prospects for electric vehicles apart from cars. It says that the value proposition for electric trucks is improving, even for long-haul operations and that electric truck sales grew by close to 80% globally in 2024 to reach nearly 2% of total truck sales. Significantly, the IEA says that the total cost of ownership of a battery electric heavy-duty truck is already lower than for a diesel equivalent in China in some use cases, particularly high mileage applications.
Across all vehicle modes, the IEA says, deployment of EVs replaces the use of more than 5 million barrels of oil per day globally in 2030.
The report warns, however, that uncertainty around the future of trade and industrial policy presents downside risks to the economic outlook and lower oil prices could affect the uptake of electric vehicles.
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