Clean energy now key driver of growth in China as overall CO2 emissions begin to fall
Thu 12 February 2026
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New analysis by Carbon Brief finds that China's carbon dioxide (CO2) emissions fell by 1% in the final quarter of 2025, extending a gradual fall in the country's overall emissions that began in March 2024. The fall is significant as China is the world's largest emitter of greenhouse gases, ahead of the United States.
Meanwhile, earlier analysis by Carbon Brief found that solar power, electric vehicles and other clean energy technologies drove more than a third of the growth in China’s economy in 2025 – and more than 90% of the rise in investment.
Carbon Brief says that the final quarter CO2 figures from China extends a “flat or falling” trend in the country's CO2 emissions that has now lasted for nearly two years. Its analysis shows that, in 2025, emissions from fossil fuels increased by an estimated 0.1%, but this was more than offset by a 7% decline in CO2 from cement.
Other key findings include:
CO2 emissions fell year-on-year in almost all major sectors in 2025, including transport (3%), power (1.5%) and building materials (7%).
The key exception was the chemicals industry, where emissions grew 12%.
Solar power output increased by 43% year-on-year, wind by 14% and nuclear 8%, helping push down coal generation by 1.9%.
Energy storage capacity grew by a record 75 gigawatts (GW), well ahead of the rise in peak demand of 55GW.
This means that growth in energy storage capacity and clean-power output topped the increases in peak and total electricity demand, respectively.
The CO2 numbers imply that China’s carbon intensity – its fossil-fuel emissions per unit of GDP – fell by 4.7% in 2025 and by 12% during 2020-25.
Recent Carbon Brief analysis found that China's clean energy sectors contributed a record 15.4tn yuan ($2.1tn) in 2025, some 11.4% of China’s gross domestic product (GDP) – comparable to the economies of Brazil or Canada. The analysis shows that China’s clean energy sectors nearly doubled in real value between 2022-25.
Other key findings from the analysis include:
Without clean energy sectors, China would have missed its target for GDP growth of “around 5%”, expanding by 3.5% in 2025 instead of the reported 5.0%.
Clean energy industries are expanding much more quickly than China’s economy overall, with their annual growth rate accelerating from 12% in 2024 to 18% in 2025.
The “new three” of EVs, batteries and solar continue to dominate the economic contribution of clean energy in China, generating two-thirds of the value added and attracting more than half of all investment in the sectors.
China’s investments in clean energy reached 7.2tn yuan ($1.0tn) in 2025, roughly four times the still sizable $260bn put into fossil-fuel extraction and coal power.
Exports of clean energy technologies grew rapidly in 2025, but China’s domestic market still far exceeds the export market in value for Chinese firms.
Image: Courtesy Nuno Marques, Unsplash
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