Bloomberg projects surge in EV sales to 2030; growth in leasing

Bloomberg New Energy Finance's global long-term Electric Vehicle Outlook projects that EV sales will rise from a record 1.1m globally in 2017 to 11 million in 2025 and then surge to 30 million in 2030 as they become cheaper to make than internal combustion engine (ICE) cars. In associated commentary, Bloomberg says that the rise in EVs will be associated with an increase in vehicle leasing rather than outright purchase.

 

The number of ICE vehicles sold per year (gasoline or diesel) is expected to start declining in the mid-2020s, as EVs bite hard into their market. In 2040, some 60 million EVs are projected to be sold, equivalent to 55% of the global light-duty vehicle market. ‘Shared mobility’ cars will be a small but growing element. 

 

The advance of e-buses is expected to be even more rapid than for electric cars, according to BNEF’s analysis. It shows electric buses in almost all charging configurations having a lower total cost of ownership than conventional municipal buses by 2019. There are already over 300,000 e-buses on the road in China, and electric models are on track to dominate the global market by the late 2020s.

 

Bloomberg says that electric car cost parity with ICE vehicles will arrive in about 2024 as batteries become cheaper. The higher current purchase cost and the pace of technical change will make leasing a more obvious option for those in search of a new electric vehicle in the coming years.

 

Note: Vehicle leasing, its potential for growth and potential for encouraging lower emission choices and 'shared mobility', will be amongst the themes discussed at the LowCVP's Annual Conference on Thursday July 12, Westminster, London. For more information, see the LowCVP Conference event page.