A new analysis from Climate Action Tracker finds that there is a "massive credibility, action and commitment gap" that is casting a long shadow over the climate change talks. The analysis calculates that the world is on track for 2.4C of warming, even under an 'optimistic scenario'; far more than the 1.5C target limit.
The analysis finds that policy implementation is "advancing at a snail’s pace", that 2030 targets remain "totally inadequate".
The report says that under current policies, end-of-century warming is expected to be 2.7°C. While this estimate has fallen since a September 2020 assessment, major new policy developments are not the driving factor. The improvement is due primarily to the inclusion of the US and China’s net zero targets, now that both countries have submitted their long-term strategies to the UNFCCC.
Globally, around 90% of emissions are now covered by net zero targets. While these targets are an important signal, the report says, and some have accelerated governments’ climate action, the quality of most remains questionable.
The analysis says that if all the announced net zero commitments or targets under discussion are implemented, this would bring the temperature estimate for this “optimistic scenario” down to 1.8°C by 2100, with peak warming of 1.9°C. "But this is only IF these targets are fully implemented, and it’s a big IF." The work shows that countries with an “acceptable” net zero rating cover only 6% of global emissions.
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