New UN report shows 'no credible pathway' to 1.5°C while IEA says fossil fuel demand is close to peak
Thu 27 October 2022
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A new report from the United Nations Environment Programme says that we are far from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and that policies currently in place point to a devastating 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Meanwhile, the International Energy Agency says, at least, that a peak in fossil fuel use is in prospect by the mid-2020s.
The UNEP report is the 13th edition in an annual series that provides an overview of the difference between where greenhouse emissions are predicted to be in 2030 and where they should be to avert the worst impacts of climate change.
The report shows that updated national pledges since COP26 – held in 2021 in Glasgow, UK – make a negligible difference to predicted 2030 emissions and that we are far from the Paris Agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C, preferably 1.5°C. Policies currently in place point to a 2.8°C temperature rise by the end of the century. Implementation of the current pledges will only reduce this to a 2.4-2.6°C temperature rise.
The report says that only an urgent system-wide transformation can deliver the enormous cuts needed to limit greenhouse gas emissions by 2030: 45 per cent compared with projections based on policies currently in place to get on track to 1.5°C and 30 per cent for 2°C. It provides an in-depth exploration of how to deliver this transformation, looking at the required actions in the electricity supply, industry, transport and buildings sectors, and the food and financial systems.
The Emissions Gap Report 2022 says "the world must cut emissions by 45 per cent to avoid global catastrophe". Solutions to transform societies exist, but the time for collective, multilateral action is now.
Meanwhile, for the first time, the IEA's World Energy Outlook says that a scenario based on prevailing policy settings has global demand for each of the fossil fuels exhibiting a peak or plateau by the mid 2030s. It predicts that coal use will fall back within the next few years, while natural gas demand reaches a plateau by the end of the decade, and rising sales of electric vehicles (EVs) mean that oil demand levels off in the mid-2030s before ebbing slightly to mid-century. Total demand for fossil fuels declines steadily from the mid-2020s by around 2 exajoules per year on average to 2050.
Global fossil fuel use has risen alongside GDP since the start of the Industrial Revolution in the 18th century: putting this rise into reverse while continuing to expand the global economy will be "a pivotal moment in energy history" according to the IEA. The share of fossil fuels in the global energy mix has been stubbornly high, at around 80%, for decades. By 2030, this share falls below 75%, and to just above 60% by 2050.
The report says that a high point for global energy-related CO2 emissions is reached, at 37 billion tonnes (Gt) per year, and this falls back to 32 Gt by 2050. The IEA says that this would be associated with a rise of around 2.5 °C in global average temperatures by 2100, only a little short of the UN's "catastrophic" 2.8°C. However, this is a better outcome than projected a few years ago: renewed policy momentum and technology gains made since 2015 have shaved around 1 °C off the long-term temperature rise, according to the IEA. However, it says a reduction of only 13% in annual CO2 emissions to 2050 in "is far from enough to avoid severe impacts from a changing climate".
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